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Mapping the Future

by Marie Mosely BSc Hons    

“Life doesn’t come with any guarantees.  Nothing is certain.  There is no such thing as a sure thing.  By taking few chances and not trying something new, we reduce our risk of failure.  However, we also reduce our chances of success.”  Jim Clemmer “Successful Failures”

Unknown Territory

Leading people into the future means taking them into unknown territory.  The forecasts depend on who you listen to and what you read.  It is unlikely that what drives the success of your organisation now will be what drives its success in the next 5 or 10 years. 

Fear of the unknown causes either a sense of excitement or fear.  As human beings we are designed to search for meaning, to understand where we are in relation to the past and the future.  As Leaders in your organisations, you will need to be able to answer the question “What does this mean for our future?” and the answers you give will need to satisfy those who are fearful and uncertain (to give them some sense of security) and those who are excited and forward thinking (to motivate them to stay with you). 

Creating Scenarios

A very effective way to help people to feel secure is to create possible scenarios or stories about the variable futures you may face and how you would deal with them if they arose.   Scenario building helps people to understand the challenges they may face.  They create relevance and meaning and link the past, present and possible futures.  It also gives people confidence that they will be able to handle unforeseeable obstacles or situations.  After all, no-one can foretell the future for sure! 

“It appears that what people really crave is an understanding of where their company is going, what’s expected of them and where they fit into the organisation.  This is exactly what people in any tribe in the world would be taught from a very early age.  They understand how the tribe works, their part in it and the importance of joint accountability and responsibility.”  Anthony Willoughby, Willoughby Mapping.

In order to take on responsibility and feel accountable for taking any venture forward, people need to have a very clear idea of their present reality and what the plans are for the future.  Lack of focus causes confusion.

What kind of scenarios are people creating about the present and future of your organisation?  What kind of language do they use, what stories do they tell when they talk about the organisation?  What is motivating your staff and more importantly, towards what?  Do they have a clear and agreed picture of the future they’re trying to create?  Have they been involved in the creation of possible scenarios?  Can they see themselves working effectively in all of those scenarios?  Are they creating a climate and culture that will be supportive of those scenarios or do they think that tomorrow is going to be just like today?

Scanning the Horizon

Successful models are the hardest to challenge.  People often maintain the status quo with processes and procedures that work now when what they need to be doing is thinking about what’s on the horizon and how it’s going to affect the way the business will work in the future.  Who, in your organisation, is scanning the horizon?  Are they studying what’s changing now and the possible impacts for the organisation’s future?  Are they watching emerging trends?  Can they link what’s happening in other businesses to what might happen in yours?  Or are they like the people who used to run Ice Factories in the past?.  It never occurred to them that people would have refrigerators in their homes and make their own ice.  They didn’t even see it coming.  Just like Caterpillar who never dreamed that Komatsu could take such a huge percentage of their market in a very short space of time, or the Oil Companies that hadn’t realised that oil would ever cost more than $10 a barrel.  The lesson?  Beware blindspots!

Creating the Future

When we do think about the future, it is often in relation to a specific issue, a question, plan, hope or worry that we have. 

We need to create scenarios: images of alternative possible futures, created by combining the extrapolation of current trends and emerging issues of change with their potential impacts, designed to help people explore both the possible opportunities and challenges they may face in the future. 

Any given scenario should, like reality, contain both positive and negative characteristics.  Applied futures research, or foresight, can widen organizations’ planning horizons, increase their awareness of emerging opportunities and enhance the flexibility of their planning strategies.” Dr. Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures

Assumption Reversal

One way to do this is to use assumption reversal as an exercise.  Think about the 5 things most fundamental to how your business runs now and reverse them.  Make an assumption that they’ve all been turned on their head.  How would this affect the organisation’s future?  How would you deal with the outcomes?   Suppose your biggest market collapsed?  An earthquake destroyed your biggest Supplier’s premises?  The demand for your product or service trippled over 6 months? 

Think of things that might affect the business in the next 6 months, year or 5 years.  You want people to take the exercises seriously, however, you can also have fun with them - it’s good for the imagination!

Another exercise you can use to stretch your minds and imaginations is to do a “What if....................and how would that affect our business and impact on our staff?”.  Here are some generalised examples.

What if..............

no household is allowed to own more than two cars?

all new office blocks must be built without parking spaces and all staff must be required to travel by public transport?

because of a UN initiative, all Western organisations with operations in the Third World have to pay local staff at a minimum of 50% of equivalent salary rates in the home country?

organisations no longer need secretarial or administration staff because people can talk directly to their computers which also make phonecalls, type, prepare figures, send e-mails, file etc.?

people take virtual holidays without ever moving from their own couch?

employers are obliged to provide a wellness programme for each member of staff?

fibre optics changes the makeup of cities and staff can work from wherever they are and there is no longer a need for large office buildings?

a major Customer goes into liquidation owing you four months’ worth of invoices?

you need to sustain competitive advantage in a 0 inflation climate?  Or in 2% deflation?”                  

1/3 of the population is aged 65 or over?

smart textiles transform the clothing industry and how people live?

all education takes place using computers?

a computer virus spreads across the globe and 40% of all computers are damaged irreparably?

.............and what impact would that have on our staff and the way we do business now?

“It’s reaction time that matters.  The cycle time regulating the ups and downs of business is getting shorter and some of the peaks and valleys are getting higher and lower.”  I. M. Booth, Polaroid Corporation

Internal Communication

Is your organisation merely surviving or playing catch up?  Is it moving forward, and leading the future?  Or is it going to be just an MHB (Might Have Been) company?

What are you doing to make sure that your internal communication systems are as effective as they can be?  Many organisations spend a lot of time, effort and money on brochures, websites and communications to the external world.  All of this can be wasted if, internally, people are de-motivated, don’t know what is happening, where the organisation is going and either clam up or communicate in rumours. 

Morale affects motivation.  Motivation affects productivity and co-operation which in turn affect the bottom line. 

How do people feel about your organisation? 

Could everyone in your organisation describe its focus, where it is going?  If so, what would they say, what kind of language would they use? 

Could they draw the territory of the organisation – the space in which it operates?

Do they understand the strengths the organisation has and the obstacles to be overcome? 

Do they understand who the future Customers or Clients will be? 

Can they see the route to these Customers?

What about the territory of your future Customers?  Do your staff understand it or do your competitors have a far better understanding?  If so, what will happen to your organisation?

Territory Mapping®

In your organisation’s territory (the space in which it operates), people automatically create groups.  However, in some organisations, these groups not only become tribal but also dysfunctional.  Using Territory Mapping® to assess your territory, it is possible to align all of the different corporate ‘tribes’ behind one common agenda and have them focus on the issues that really do count.

Where is your territory? 

Is it shrinking or expanding? 

Where are your competition, Customers, opportunities for the future?

What obstacles do you face? 

What tools do you have to overcome them? 

Are your people aligned and focused on the same map? 

Do you understand what your Customers are facing in their future?  Can you map their territories?  Can you offer them the best service and products as a result?

“The Territory Mapping® process helped us to develop a clear sales strategy and to become the most successful Sales Team in the group.”  European Sales Director, Thomson Financial Solutions Group.

“The process is very powerful and helped us to understand our position and how to improve it.”  Virgin One Account

Story Form

“Effective internal communication and how its strategic role is viewed in organisations is directly linked with its financial performance.”  Mercer Group

Just like the Chief of any tribe would do, the Leaders in an organisation need to be able to communicate where the organisation is now, where it’s going and what everyone’s place will be in that future.  One of the most effective ways to do this is to share the information in story form.  People of every culture relate to stories.   Stories engage people, create anticipation and excitement, something for people to look forward to positively rather than being fearful about change and the unknown entity of the future.

Set the scene.  Tell your staff how you see the market and its effect on the business now and in the future.   Give them as much detail as you can about the current position, trends and what might affect the organisation in the future.  Have them contribute their ideas.  What do they see coming?

Paint them into the picture with evocative images and descriptions.  Take them on a journey into the future.  Give them a taste of it.  Tell them about the obstacles they might encounter on the way so that they can begin to think about how they will overcome those obstacles.    

If the stories in your organisation are already positive and are aligning people towards a united future, then use those.  Expand them into the future. 

A sense of urgency

People need to understand that thinking about and preparing for the future is important and urgent.

Urgency creates motivation.  Reaction times matter and will matter more and more.   Up to now, people thought about the future in relation to specific issues, plans, hopes or worries.  Thinking about the future needs to become ‘the norm’.  Your organisation needs to be creating scenarios.  Images of alternative possible futures to make sure that you can take the lead, survive and thrive. 

People prefer to create their own destiny.  Leading them into the future means taking them into unknown territory.  You will need to create a sense of security in as much as that is possible.  Scenario building and Territory Mapping® help to create this sense of security, meaning and excitement about the future.

An organisation without human commitment is like a person without a soul – it has no life force.

Bring people to life.  Get them to create scenarios of possible futures.  Share information so that people understand the possible impacts of changes taking place now, trends coming up and what’s out on the horizon that we can’t really see yet.  Enable them to face the future with confidence.


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Marie Mosely, a Member of the Media Panel of the British Psychological Society and a former Director of the Professional Speakers Association of Europe, is a Business Psychologist, International Speaker and Broadcaster.  Her ability to explain complex Ps